Early Christmas Bet

This year’s Early Christmas punt is Morning Assembly in the Topaz Novice Chase, which will be run at the Leopardstown festival on 29 December.

This is as much a bet against Ballycasey who at 7/4 looks too short on what he’s achieved so far.

Ballycasey has won a lone beginners chase; Morning Assembly has won a Grade 2.

When they met over hurdles over a 3 mile trip, Morning Assembly beat Ballycasey by 7 lengths.

Ballycasey may prove the better staying chaser, but both horses look like improving for the switch to fences, and until Ballycasey shows it on the track he shouldn’t be 7/4 to Morning Assembly’s 3/1.

In any bloody bally casey, it’ll be good for the game to see a trainer other than Willie Mullins pick up a decent prize.

Morning Assembly – 3pts win at 3/1 (Boylesports).

Sizing Gold #2

Well of course you win some, you lose some but Tokei Halo ran a big one out there for me today, finding just one too good in the Hong Kong Cup at 17/1.  A slower track would have helped, but he got the uncontested lead we were looking for, so no complaints.  He’ll remain interesting going right handed into the future.

It was a shame Sizing Gold was pulled out of his engagement at Fairyhouse last week because in retrospect it looked like a race there for the taking.  Now he makes his fencing debut at Punchestown, and while the field is smaller the assignment looks much tougher with Dogora and (more intriguingly) Bright New Dawn in the line-up.

I’ve been holding out for a shot of 9/2 but the books have shored themselves up at the 4/1 mark, so that’s what we’ll take.  Whatever happens, it should be an informative event.

Sizing Gold – 2pts win at 4/1 (generally available).

 

Tingle Creek Day

A rare day out for me at Sandown today, and at this stage the Hogshead Bar is looking the likeliest winner.

While I’m trying to find at least one decent bet, probably in the Henry VIII where the prices don’t look quite right to me, I’ll be having a few quid on Trifolium in the novice chase at Navan.  Of course the odds-on hotshot Felix Younger sets a good standard after his easy defeat of Defy Logic in the Craddockstown.  But watching Trifolium bound round Thurles last month was one of the surprise bonuses of the season so far, given the tame way he ended his hurdling career last year.

Sadly only a few bookies have chalked this up, so I’m stuck with the 5/2 at Boylesports with best odds guaranteed.

Trifolium – 2pts win at 5/2 (Boylesports).