European Pattern 2013: Group 1 Stayers

Not a great year for the stayers, although the Queen cracking a rare smile in the Gold Cup provided one of the season’s most memorable moments.

6 year old Tac De Boistron took a big step forward in Marco Botti’s care, and on testing ground he’d be interesting again next year.  But he heads to the Arqana sales this week, so where he ends up remains to be seen.

Arqana Sales

Gold Cup: ESTIMATE

St Leger: LEADING LIGHT

Irish Leger: VOLEURS DE COEURS

Prix du Cadran: ALTANO

Prix Royal-Oak: TAC DE BOISTRON

 

Prix Royal-Oak

The Prix Royal-Oak at Longchamp is the last of the European Group 1 races for stayers today, and at 8/1 The Lark is interesting.

Altano appeared to need almost the full two and a half miles to take the Cadran, and Ebiyza may be overbet by French punters following her win in a Group 2 on Arc weekend.

The Lark, 3rd in the Epsom Oaks, appeared to thrive when stepped up in trip in the Park Hill at Doncaster.  She sauntered home that day, a class apart, appearing to thrive on the rain softened ground.  The ground is likely to be even softer today.

If you can get 8/1 and reckon the  “true odds” to be around 6/1,  the stake = 3pts (or 3% of your bank).

As ever, there are downsides:

• She ran badly on her previous trip to France in the Prix de Malleret.  With Jamie Spencer on top, there’s always a worry that he’ll overdo what seems a pathological desire to hold-up a horse, whether the race is slowly run or not.

• There’s a temperamental streak in the family. The Lark’s mother Gull Wing refused to race when she lined up in the Park Hill.  Worse still, her grandmother Maycocks Bay got the troubled Sariska, who refused to race not once (Yorkshire Oaks) but twice (Prix Vermeille).  By then, however, she’d won two classics, and who can forget the way she breezed up in the Irish Oaks on the steel in desperate ground.

If the Cadran had been run over today’s trip, it’s a fair bet that Tac De Boistron would have come out on top, and early morning quotes of 6/1 about him look fair too.

The Lark – 3pts win at 8/1 (Stan James)

Note: the market is only partially formed, so it may be possible to get more than 8/1 later.