Oh! Toy

The excellent Harry Fry has shipped Activial to France for a Grade 2 Hurdle at Auteuil this afternoon, and he could be a bet on the PMU if overlooked by le punteur francais.

The days of British raiders being sent off at huge odds on the French Machine are well and truly behind us now, but the occasional opportunity arises, and I don’t think Harry Fry is a known French raider just yet.

Activial is currently trading at around 9/1 on the PMU, but is only 3/1 here.  I’m sure that price will contract as we approach the off at 4.15.  If I don’t get a chance to update the blog later, if he’s 5s or better before the tapes go up I’ll be having a bet, staking 2% of the Kelly fund.

Good News, Bad News

But mostly bad news.

Regarding the Kentucky Derby:

• Far From Over is out the Derby picture.
• Prospect Park, well beaten in the Santa Anita Derby, has failed to enhance his claims.
• Only Carpe Diem has kept the dream alive, by winning the Blue Grass.

Returning to the bad news, the unbeaten Dortmund took another step closer to the Roses by winning his prep by a wide margin. It wasn’t as easy as that margin suggests, though. Garcia was quite hard on him.

And looming in the wings is the brooding presence of American Pharoah, a Baffert horse seemingly better fancied than Dortmund. Everyone’s assuming he’ll breeze the Arkansas Derby this weekend and go into the big one as favourite.

You could just about justify a bet on Firing Line at 20/1 now, given the fact he’s twice given Dortmund a race.  But this could be throwing good money after bad.

The Kentucky Oaks, unlike the Derby, attracts little interest across the bookmaking fraternity over here. Only Paddy Power has a market at present, even though the main trials are now dusted.  They have four horses closely matched at the head of the market between 9/2 and 5/1. I prefer Condo Commando (9/2) but will wait until a few other bookmakers switch on the lights. The outsider I’m eyeing-up is Oceanwave, who’s twice now shaped like a stayer in want of a fast run race over the full 9 furlongs. She’s probably too slow, good enough only to stay on into midfield, but the 33/1 is tempting. Again, though, there’s no rush to back her just yet.

The Weekend’s Kentucky Derby Trials

In spite of the setbacks, I’ll always love ante-post betting.

I was looking forward to seeing Far From Over in this weekend’s Wood Memorial but he’s been blown off the Derby trail, and so ends another small dream.

In the three big trials for the Kentucky Derby this weekend, the strongest has the smallest field. Far From Over may be off the page but I can still cheer Prospect Park in the Santa Anita Derby. Dortmund, unbeaten in five, is rightly the clear favourite but we saw enough promise from Prospect Park in the San Felipe to warrant a small bet in the Derby, and this race over a slightly longer trip should tell us if we’ve taken a false trail.

The Wood Memorial has an open feel about it. Some commentators still like Daredevil, based presumably on his Champagne win last year.  But his blow-out in the Breeders’ Cup and failure to win the Swale put him squarely on the vulnerable list for me.  Then there’s Frosted, who travelled well in the Fountain Of Youth before falling in a hole, and who never seems to win much anyway. That leaves El Kabeir as the likeliest winner from the front three, but I can’t forget how easily he was swept aside by Far From Over in the Withers. I’ll keep an eye on the market but 9/4 is nothing to be writing home about.

Maybe an outsider could shake it up here.  The only one I can make a case for is Tiz Shea D. Was he inconvenienced on the rail behind El Kabeir in the Gotham last time out? Probably. But should he be as short as 8/1? I’d like to see double figures myself (is that too greedy?) and the field size of seven also puts me off. So I think I’ll just sit this one out and ponder what might have been. Maybe Far From Over will come back and piss on my chips some more by winning the Belmont.

The Blue Grass should be a walk in the park for Tampa Bay Derby winner Carpe Diem. He’ll be odds-on here and I can see the attraction of backing him for the Derby now at 14/1.  The race has a much more attractive betting shape than the Wood, though. With a dead eight in the line-up, I can take a punt on the each-way chances of Unrivaled. His overall profile looks unappealing, but he recently clocked a big run from way off the pace, prompting the savvy Team Valor to buy him up.

Carpe Diem – Kentucky Derby – 0.5pt to win the Kentucky Derby at 14/1 (generally available)

Unrivaled – Blue Grass Stakes – 0.5pt each-way at 20/1 (Betfair Sportssbook, Bet365)