Oscar’s Grandsire

Had a great day out with my grandson on the Rowley Mile yesterday.

It wasn’t going that well until the penultimate race, when the boy picked out Lavender’s Blue in the fillies’ one mile maiden.  He’s an impatient sort, so wanted to get the money down early.  The boards were all showing 6/1 except for one bit of 13/2 that we found lurking in the second row.  It must have been a good 20 minutes before the off when we took the price, as we settled down to review the bad luck we’d been coping with all day – we’d missed the first three races due to carnage on the M25, and then couldn’t buy a thrill in races 4, 5 and 6.

As we prepared ourselves for the race I pointed out to Oscar the one-way shift in Lavender’s Blue’s price: backed into 9/2, then 4/1, 7/2 and 3/1 at the off.

And in she went, making little Oscar’s day.

I’ll have to call him up today to see if he’d like to reinvest just a small amount of his winnings on Lavender’s Blue for the Oaks itself at 33/1…

it’s important to pass on what little you know to the next generation

A few notes from the early skirmishes over sprint distances this season, including races over 7f:

I’ve put the horses highlighted in the notes section in a tracker, although whether or not I back them will depend on subsequent race conditions and the available odds.

 

On A Racetrack In France

This Saturday at Newbury we’ll see the first Pattern races of the 2019 Turf season in Britain, including the hotly anticipated seasonal reappearance of Too Darn Hot in the Greenham.

Meanwhile across the Channel the French Pattern is already underway.  The Prix Exbury was run, fittingly, at the end of Cheltenham Festival week.  Longchamp opened their gates the other day, and today we have a couple of trials for the French Guineas at Maisons-Laffitte.

After losing the rights to Irish racing, Sky Racing channel 415 looks set to bring us more coverage from France, so we’d better make the most of it.

Early eye-catchers include:

Rockemperor: a staying on second in the Prix La Force on Sunday. Unfashionably trained by Simone Brogi, he may pop up at a fair price at some point over 10f.

Ghaiyyath: a most convincing winner of the Harcourt for Charlie Appleby.  Winner of the 2017 Autumn Stakes, Ghaiyyath was sidelined for much of his Classic season.  He’s back now and looks Group 1 material.  In fact they already have their eyes on the Arc, the best Group 1 of them all.

An obvious target in the meantime would be something like the Prince of Wales Stakes at Royal Ascot.  But I couldn’t even find a market for that race the other day, which is a bit shit really.

At Listed level, three more early winners to keep in mind:

Tertius: runaway winner of a sprint by six lengths at Chantilly on 14 March, albeit on testing ground and so difficult to assess

Tifosa: an early candidate for the French 1000 Guineas after a noteworthy last-to-first burst in the Camargo at Saint-Cloud for Pia Brandt

Morgan Le Faye: an apparently exposed stayer who won convincingly when stepped back by Andre Fabre to a mile and a quarter at Longchamp on Sunday.

Salut!

Lipping out

The mug punter can’t resist a bet on the US Masters, no?

In a novicey attempt to dress up my guesses in a respectable suit of Tommy Armour, I’ve looked at course-form numbers, as even I know that Augusta is a specialist’s track:

Back in the old days you just stuck a few quid each-way on Phil Mickelson every year and enjoyed the ride as he posted figures of  6-7-3-3-3-1-10-1-24-5-5-1.

Those days are behind us now – although the fact that big Phil’s snagged a win on the Tour this season will no doubt draw us in once more, albeit to small stakes… “JUST IN CASE”.

Other bets are likely to revolve around the red numbers above. If I had to single just one out at the prices, I suppose Jason Day would be the one, notwithstanding his struggle with injury.

I’ll continue to have my doubt about the talented Jon Rahm until he shows he has the bottle to win a major (in what little golf I see I’ve detected a hot-headedness from him at the business end that I don’t like).

Last year I swore I wouldn’t back Spieth for this again, but it’s hard to disregard that imperious course form taken as a whole.  I’m told he can’t hit a fairway at the moment.

Finau’s only been round here once but he’s a fair price.

And for all I know, it’s possible that Hoffman and Olesen are gone at the game by now, but they just look overpriced.