Ante-Post with Nicky & Willie

A long time ago my mate Davoski and I would spend the winter months assembling and reassembling our ante-post “portfolios” for the Cheltenham Festival in March. Portfolios. Port-Folios. We recognised the absurdity and quickly substituted the phrase “Schedule of Shame” – Davoski’s words that seemed, like Yosser Hughes, better looking by far.

Those were the days when Willie Mullins didn’t roll into town with a cold deck.  As so-called value punters we’d always be looking for an underdog.  We wanted a big price about something that wasn’t being talked about – yet.

These days you have to wonder if there’s much mileage in that sort of approach.

In the last five years Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson have practically farmed the big races. We all know it – see the table below.

When you get into the detail you see they’ve won almost half of them (48%).

Is it significant that they have a relatively modest record with stayers? Maybe, maybe not. The sample is way too small.  But then maybe these top trainers and their owners are all about getting hold of the class. And the class horse doesn’t always get home over a trip at Cheltenham.

Come to think of it, they say you need a proper stayer to win the Triumph, don’t they? And their record in that race isn’t so good either.  (Having said that, it looks like Henderson’s found a good one for the race this year.)

Anyway, if you discount the races run over 3 miles or more, their success rate climbs to 61% FFS, with Mullins alone copping 43%. Even allowing for the fact that they’ve been blessed to look after multiple winners who come back every March and just do it all over again, 61% is surely an astonishing figure.

Where does this leave the ante-post punter in January looking for a scrap of value?  This is a quiet period, a fine time for us to review the season at our leisure and wade steady-eyed into the Festival markets.

Do we have to accept it’s a mug’s game, unless we fix our gaze narrowly on the longer races?  Are we too late in the other races?  Is it now better to focus on Mullins & Henderson and go in much earlier at a better price, knowing all the while that Ruby will persuade connections to switch your best ticket to a different race just days before the event?

Or, if we accept the probability that Willie & Nicky are likely to walk away with over half the spoils, is it possible to formulate a winning strategy that involves actually backing some of their beasts now?

 

Something of a Festival nature

What price a Douvan/Un De Sceaux/Faugheen treble on Day 1 of the Festival?  10/1? Surely a bit more than that if the on-course bookies are worth their salt?

Seriously, though, with just over two weeks to go it’s time to speed date the best of the races. And with speed dating, you only have to get lucky once.

Supreme: the crumb of comfort here is that neither Douvan nor L’Ami Serge have yet won on quick ground.  With Nichols Canyon apparently destined (wrongly in my view) for the Neptune, the value here is with Alvisio Ville at 20/1 (Betfair Sportsbook).  Supporters of the McManus grey will be hoping (probably forlornly) that McCoy chooses to ride Jollyallan. He gave Alvisio Vic almost completely no cover in the Deloitte.  A more restrained ride in the big one, over a shorter trip could cause an upset.

Arkle: Shaping into a shocker this, with everything pointing towards an Un De Sceaux benefit.  There may be mileage in Vibrato Valtat each-way, but at 5/1 that looks like a pussy’s bet.  The only scenario that appeals here is the one that recalls how well Sgt Reckless came home in the Supreme last year.  This will be a true test if Un De Sceaux stays on his feet, which should assist the abominably campaigned Channon beast. Decent ground would help too.  Best price is 16/1 (with Boylesports non-runner no bet) and the only each-way bet in this batch.

Champion Hurdle: it doesn’t take long to settle on the champion Jezki at 6/1 (Paddy Power & Stan James – the former NRNB, the latter (the SPONSORS!) not). If only Geraghty could jock off McCoy… This will be the first time Faugheen has taken on the best, and there’s always a well-founded theory that The New One will get caught for speed coming down the hill.

Neptune: we’re told that Nichols Canyon will stay all day (look at his Flat pedigree) but would Windsor Park have reeled him in if the Deloitte had been run over two miles five? Perhaps the Weld beast was flattered by the way he stalked into the race from off the pace. It’s a tricky one this. One day a John Ferguson Flat Pony is going to deliver on the biggest stage, and maybe Parlour Games (out of the multiple Oaks winning Petrushka no less!) is the one to do it. A more solid pick is Outlander at a general 8/1 (again Boylesports are NRNB), especially when you review the way he toyed with fair horses at Leopardstown on Irish Champion day.

RSA: based on what he’d achieved so far, I was against Don Poli in the Topaz, but on that day he won me over. His was the sort of no nonsense strong-staying performance you look for in an RSA horse, and I’m sure Gigginstown would be right to bypass the 4-Miler for this. Kings Palace is likeable too, but for different reasons.  I can’t keep his failure in last year’s Albert Bartlett out of my mind, notwithstanding his wonderful jumping.  The strategy, then, has to be to keep Don Poli in reserve for a possible bet on the day, while focusing for the time being on Neil Mulholland’s The Young Master at a general 10/1 (including Boylesports). He’s been most impressive in handicaps this season, especially when following up with a big weight at Ascot.

Queen Mother: what the hell are we supposed to make of this event?  Keep it simple: oppose Sprinter Sacre until he shows he can finish a race.  Oppose Sire de Grugy until he can show he’s over whatever’s been ailing him.  Oppose Dodging Bullets until he runs a decent race at the Festival.   On that basis the safe bet is probably Champagne Fever but 11/2 isn’t very exciting, which leaves us with the unlikely Mr Mole at a general 8/1 NRNB. He’s answered a lot of questions this year, if not all of them (can he overcome his ordinary form at Cheltenham, for example?). We’ll see.

Bumper: neither Bordini nor Pylonthepressure have wowed me quite so much as Moon Racer, who hasn’t been seen since the October meeting at Cheltenham.  I was there that day, and while you’re always dangerously liable to over-rate such experiences, I can still recall the ease with which he took off that day. At a general 12/1 (NRNB with Bet 365) he’ll do for me.

JLT: Oh Vautour!  He was my sneaky early bet for the Queen Mother and then the wheels came off at Christmas. Both Apache Stronghold and Valseur Lido appeal here, but at the prices (a general 16/1 or 14/1 NRNB) the ungainly mare Gitane du Berlais is the one that stands out at this stage. For a Grade 1, the Scilly Isles never seems to amount to much, it’s true, but she gave the well-touted Irish Saint a good seeing to here, and seems well built for fences.

Ryanair: I really don’t think Cheltenham is the place for the gangly Don Cossack.  Cue Card would bolt up if able to reproduce his remarkable win in this two years ago, but there’s a nagging sense that he was bottomed when stopping dead in the 2013 King George. On that basis the 10/1 (Hill) or 8/1 NRNB about Johns Spirit is more than tempting.  He wants the sort of test that Cue Card can be expected to present here, and his desperately unlucky 2nd carrying 11-12 in the Paddy Power intimated he was ready for the step into Grade 1 company. God only knows what Jonjo was thinking next, though, chucking him to the lions in the King George like that. Hopefully the horse can recover.

World Hurdle: shaping into an abysmal race, especially if Annie Power is kept to the mares’ event.  That won’t mean a thing if the popular Rock On Ruby can win, but you have to doubt he can truly get the 3 miles here.  Blue Fashion is interesting up to a point, but not interesting enough at 16/1.  Jetson at 25s?  Not good enough, surely?  Think I’ll come back to this race at a later date.

Triumph: Peace And Co, impressive as he’s been, is short enough but sets a high standard. Petite Parisienne, a Grade 1  winner, is tempting at 10/1, but at 14/1 (including Boylesports) Dicosimo just shades it.  Hasn’t put much in the book, but the credentials of course are impeccable.  I could end up backing PP too come the big day.

Albert Bartlett: a while ago, I hastily backed Out Sam for this and was soon under the impression that he’d be bypassing the Festival.  If I’m sweet on Outlander for the Neptune, then I have to take a bite of Martello Tower at 16/1 (Ladbrokes) for this. The NRNB price is much shorter than this, but we know they’re aiming for this race so just needs to keep sound. He’s already won twice over three miles.

Gold Cup: and finally the Gold Cup, and in spite of concerns about his ability to do the job on quicker ground, I’m going for Many Clouds at a widely available 8/1 NRNB to produce an emotional outcome for Oliver Sherwood.  Why? Because he’s game, and if he’s there as they turn for home I can see him putting it all in, holding back nothing for himself.

Festival 15

Out Sam’s win at Newbury looks pretty good now, with beaten horses impressing since.

Nothing out of Ireland has captured the imagination quite yet, especially following the beating of No More Heroes recently.

Out Sam (who runs again at Ascot today) is 161/ for the Neptune, which isn’t bad for a Henderson beast – with Vyta Du Roc reportedly heading for the Albert Bartlett.

1pt win 16/1 (betfair Sportsbook, William Hill and others)