Some observations on the Breeders’ Cup, as we all get ready for the big meeting on the Pacific coast at Del Mar on 3-4 November.
In the last five years:
-30 out of 67 favourites (45%) finished outside the first 3. That’s a lot of potential place lays.
-14 of the 65 races (22%) were won at double-figure odds. There are usually around 3 big priced winners each year.
16 of the 65 races (23%) were won by the favourite. There were 10 odds-on shots, six of whom won.
-The favourites tend to do better in the five big dirt races for the older horses (Sprint, F&M Sprint, Dirt Mile, Distaff, Classic). Surely not a surprise. While only one favourite has won the Classic in the last five years, overall the jolly is 10/25 (40%).
-On the other hand, only 4/30 (13%) of the turf races were won by the favourite. Punters, including the US players, seem to accept without question the presumption that the turf races are simply there for the taking by the best of the Europeans. Yet the list of beaten European favourites is long indeed: Washington DC, Limato, Roly Poly, Legatissimo, Golden Horn, Make Believe, Alice Springs, Toronado, Telescope, Dank, War Envy, The Fugue (twice), Vorda, Sky Lantern, Dundonnell, St Nicholas Abbey, Excellebration.
-In fact, just 12/35 (34%) of the turf races were won by the Europeans, and it would be fair to say that the only locked-in Euro-benefit race is the 12f Turf (4/5), which makes complete sense.
-The favourite has also been vulnerable in the two juvenile dirt events (2/10). The Juvenile Fillies has been won by some great horses (Beholder in 2012, Songbird in 2015) but it’s also seen some absolute boilovers with the other three winners rolling in at 28/1, 66/1 and 40/1.
So if you’ve played the ante-post markets wisely, and you’re sitting on some tasty looking short-priced fancies, don’t just sit back and (hopefully) enjoy the action. Treat yourself to a few punts at big prices on Friday and Saturday night.
The stats here are based on the official GB industry starting prices, which is not ideal. All the official PMU starting prices have not been made available on the Racing Post database.
The Bacchy Races 