Looking for Value at the Breeders’ Cup

Some observations on the Breeders’ Cup, as we all get ready for the big meeting on the Pacific coast at Del Mar on 3-4 November.

In the last five years:

-30 out of 67 favourites (45%) finished outside the first 3.  That’s a lot of potential place lays.

-14 of the 65 races (22%) were won at double-figure odds. There are usually around 3 big priced winners each year.

16 of the 65 races (23%) were won by the favourite. There were 10 odds-on shots, six of whom won.

-The favourites tend to do better in the five big dirt races for the older horses (Sprint, F&M Sprint, Dirt Mile, Distaff, Classic). Surely not a surprise. While only one favourite has won the Classic in the last five years, overall the jolly is 10/25 (40%).

-On the other hand, only 4/30 (13%) of the turf races were won by the favourite.  Punters, including the US players, seem to accept without question the presumption that the turf races are simply there for the taking by the best of the Europeans.  Yet the list of beaten European favourites is long indeed: Washington DC, Limato, Roly Poly, Legatissimo, Golden Horn, Make Believe, Alice Springs, Toronado, Telescope, Dank, War Envy, The Fugue (twice), Vorda, Sky Lantern, Dundonnell, St Nicholas Abbey, Excellebration.

-In fact, just 12/35 (34%) of the turf races were won by the Europeans, and it would be fair to say that the only locked-in Euro-benefit race is the 12f Turf (4/5), which makes complete sense.

-The favourite has also been vulnerable in the two juvenile dirt events (2/10). The Juvenile Fillies has been won by some great horses (Beholder in 2012, Songbird in 2015) but it’s also seen some absolute boilovers with the other three winners rolling in at 28/1, 66/1 and 40/1.

So if you’ve played the ante-post markets wisely, and you’re sitting on some tasty looking short-priced fancies, don’t just sit back and (hopefully) enjoy the action.  Treat yourself to a few punts at big prices on Friday and Saturday night.

 

The stats here are based on the official GB industry starting prices, which is not ideal. All the official PMU starting prices have not been made available on the Racing Post database.

Ante-Post with Nicky & Willie

A long time ago my mate Davoski and I would spend the winter months assembling and reassembling our ante-post “portfolios” for the Cheltenham Festival in March. Portfolios. Port-Folios. We recognised the absurdity and quickly substituted the phrase “Schedule of Shame” – Davoski’s words that seemed, like Yosser Hughes, better looking by far.

Those were the days when Willie Mullins didn’t roll into town with a cold deck.  As so-called value punters we’d always be looking for an underdog.  We wanted a big price about something that wasn’t being talked about – yet.

These days you have to wonder if there’s much mileage in that sort of approach.

In the last five years Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson have practically farmed the big races. We all know it – see the table below.

When you get into the detail you see they’ve won almost half of them (48%).

Is it significant that they have a relatively modest record with stayers? Maybe, maybe not. The sample is way too small.  But then maybe these top trainers and their owners are all about getting hold of the class. And the class horse doesn’t always get home over a trip at Cheltenham.

Come to think of it, they say you need a proper stayer to win the Triumph, don’t they? And their record in that race isn’t so good either.  (Having said that, it looks like Henderson’s found a good one for the race this year.)

Anyway, if you discount the races run over 3 miles or more, their success rate climbs to 61% FFS, with Mullins alone copping 43%. Even allowing for the fact that they’ve been blessed to look after multiple winners who come back every March and just do it all over again, 61% is surely an astonishing figure.

Where does this leave the ante-post punter in January looking for a scrap of value?  This is a quiet period, a fine time for us to review the season at our leisure and wade steady-eyed into the Festival markets.

Do we have to accept it’s a mug’s game, unless we fix our gaze narrowly on the longer races?  Are we too late in the other races?  Is it now better to focus on Mullins & Henderson and go in much earlier at a better price, knowing all the while that Ruby will persuade connections to switch your best ticket to a different race just days before the event?

Or, if we accept the probability that Willie & Nicky are likely to walk away with over half the spoils, is it possible to formulate a winning strategy that involves actually backing some of their beasts now?

 

Oh! Toy

The excellent Harry Fry has shipped Activial to France for a Grade 2 Hurdle at Auteuil this afternoon, and he could be a bet on the PMU if overlooked by le punteur francais.

The days of British raiders being sent off at huge odds on the French Machine are well and truly behind us now, but the occasional opportunity arises, and I don’t think Harry Fry is a known French raider just yet.

Activial is currently trading at around 9/1 on the PMU, but is only 3/1 here.  I’m sure that price will contract as we approach the off at 4.15.  If I don’t get a chance to update the blog later, if he’s 5s or better before the tapes go up I’ll be having a bet, staking 2% of the Kelly fund.